Polls for Brazil’s second round show Bolsonaro’s lead shrinking

Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 50.9% to 49.1% in an average of 13 polls published between October 13 and 19, according to Congresso em Foco. Bolsonaro leads in 12 of the 13 surveys, but his advantage has narrowed in five of six polls with earlier runoff results for comparison. The lead of Lula da Silva decreased from 5.6 percentage points as of October 9 to 2.2 points current October 19. In case of BTG/Nexus, the drop between the two measures is from 3.2 points to 0.6% points, while in the case of Datafolha, the gap is reduced from 4 points down to 2. The aforementioned Vox Brasil is the only pollster showing support for Lula with the indication of 51 percent against 49%. Support appears to have increased since the measure took effect. In a recent Quaest poll, 64% of respondents said they knew about the ban and approved of it, while another 8% approved after being informed about the measure. The combined figure of 72% compares with 62% in Quaest’s survey at the end of September. With respect to the average of polls, it is also important to mention that each of the polling organizations is counted equally without being used as an analysis of the elections. Moreover, it is worth mentioning that all the changes in the poll results should not be seen as statistically relevant. Impact of betting ban on elections The ban on betting in Brazil has overwhelming backing from the public, with an approval rating of 78% according to a Datafolha poll. However, a poll by Indexa/Broadcast revealed that 63% of voters did not believe that a candidate’s position on betting would sway their vote. Sources have indicated that some supporters of Lula believe that the ban has negatively affected his popularity, but the impact of the ban is still not sure. The candidates did not mention betting in the debate that took place on October 18th. The final televised debate is scheduled for October 23 on TV Globo, two days before Brazil’s October 25 runoff. The vote will determine the presidency after Bolsonaro secured 47.03% of valid votes and Lula received 45.16% in the first round.