Brazil betting ban could push 21.6mln people to gamble offshore: Blask

Brazil’s decision to ban licensed online gambling could result in approximately 21.6 million bettors shifting to offshore platforms, according to a report by gaming market intelligence firm Blask. The report, published on Tuesday, draws on the consumer behaviour patterns that were seen after India’s ban on real-money online gaming in August 2025, as well as initial data from Brazil subsequent to its own restrictions. Brazil’s government introduced a provisional measure on September 25 banning fixed-odds sports betting and online casino gaming. Licensed operators were required to stop accepting deposits immediately, with websites and applications going offline on October 6. The move effectively “switched off” a regulated market that generated approximately US$6.6 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025, according to Blask. The country’s regulated online betting market had officially launched in January 2025. Blask estimates that approximately 86 percent of Brazil’s 25.2 million legal bettors could continue gambling following the ban, predominantly through unlicensed offshore platforms. The forecast is based partly on the experience of India, where the research firm tracked the online behaviour of users before and after the prohibition of real-money gaming. According to the report, 62.9 percent of Indian users who had accessed domestic real-money gaming platforms before the ban were still gambling three months later, with most using offshore websites. Blask said the Indian findings suggested that prohibition substantially reduced activity on regulated platforms without eliminating underlying gambling demand. In Brazil, the initial impact on licensed operators was already evident during the first week following the announcement. By October 1, the proportion of users in Blask’s Brazilian monitoring panel visiting licensed gambling websites was 73.5 percent below normal levels. Meanwhile, traffic to unlicensed platforms remained relatively stable, staying within 11 percent of normal levels throughout the period, according to the research. Search demand for licensed gambling brands had also fallen by more than 80 percent by early October, compared with a substantially smaller decline for offshore brands. “On India’s evidence we expect about 21.6 million of Brazil’s 25.2 million legal bettors to keep betting, almost all on offshore sites without self-exclusion, age checks or deposit limits,” Blask noted. “Brazil’s move should be faster than India’s: Indians had to swap fantasy and rummy apps for offshore casinos and sportsbooks, while Brazilians will find the same sports betting and casino offshore, often from the same brands,” it added. Financial woes Blask, however, acknowledged that the early data did not yet demonstrate a large-scale migration of Brazilian bettors to offshore operators. Among 5,970 monitored users who had previously visited only licensed betting platforms, just 6.7 percent accessed an unlicensed website in the first week after the ban, compared with 5.1 percent during a normal week. The report suggested that many users were temporarily suspending gambling activity while withdrawing funds or considering alternative platforms. The report also highlighted the potential financial consequences of Brazil’s decision. Licensed betting operators paid approximately US$1.8 billion in federal betting taxes in 2025, according to the research. The sector also paid an estimated US$456 million in licence fees for five-year authorisations that are now due to be terminated without compensation. Blask said the regulated sector supported approximately 15,500 jobs, including 10,000 direct positions, many in technology, cybersecurity, compliance and related services. Jeffrey Haas, chairman of Blask’s board of advisors, argued that eliminating the regulated market would not necessarily reduce gambling demand. “Shutting down a legal market doesn’t extinguish player demand,” he said, warning that prohibition could shift gambling activity and associated revenue to offshore operators. The prohibition remains subject to congressional approval and has been challenged by industry groups before Brazil’s Supreme Court. Blask said the longer-term impact would depend on how quickly consumers adapted to the restrictions and whether the prohibition remained in place. The firm cautioned that its projections for Brazil were based on the experience of India and that the initial Brazilian data covered only the first week following the announcement.