Brazil’s regulated betting market left in ‘zombie state’ as Lula gets fourth term

In a historic turnaround, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was declared winner of Brazil’s presidential election, securing a fourth term and handing the future of the country’s regulated betting market to Congress. Sitting down on iGaming Daily, SBC’s Editor-at-Large Ted Menmuir and SBC Notícias Brazil Editor Leonardo Biazzi unpacked the result and what it means for operators. Lula beat Liberal Party rival Flávio Bolsonaro in a second-round runoff by around four million votes, overturning polls that had shown him trailing. Biazzi detailed how the president was able to mobilise supporters through WhatsApp groups and physical demonstrations, overturning polls that had the Workers Party candidate behind. Lula gained roughly 11 million more votes from the first round, while Bolsonaro added only three million. Menmuir said, despite polling data, the result wasn’t an upset. He argued that odds against Lula had been inflated by bets on foreign platforms with little granular view of Brazil. The end of Bets Menmuir anticipated that Lula’s re-election signals the “final death sentencing” of the Bets regime, which looked to Congress for any hope of abatement. Lula’s 25 September provisional measure effectively ended Brazil’s legalised betting industry overnight, but Congress has the power to alter, amend or reject the president’s provisional measure within 120 days of its introduction. According to Biazzi, betting was not mentioned during Lula’s victory speech in Sao Paulo, though days earlier the president had repeated that the operators would not return. The industry’s other hope is the Supreme Court, which could rule the measure unconstitutional. But Biazzi noted that licence reinstatement would be a harder, more drawn out process. Menmuir summed up the situation: Brazil is in a “zombie state” for online gambling. Should Lula renege on his betting ban, the damage to Brazil’s regulated betting industry is already done. Biazzi points to operator confidence in the region following Lula’s surprise ban and says some operators will not return, whatever the government decides. Attention now turns to Congress, where nearly 100 proposals to amend the provisional measure have been submitted. Many in the country would bring sportsbooks back while keeping online casinos out. What complicates Lula’s return is the fact he lacks a majority in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. But, according to Biazzi, many newly elected politicians oppose gambling on evangelical grounds, giving Lula a support-base that stretches beyond political party affiliation. Watch the full episode here.