Lula da Silva Wins Brazil’s Presidential Election, Making the Future of iGaming Uncertain

Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva just won a fourth term as president, defeating rival Flavio Bolsonaro. While many celebrated this development, the gambling industry remains wary as it could mean the definitive end of the local iGaming sector. Brazil Changed Its Mind on Online Gambling Brazil legalized online gaming and betting less than two years ago, opening a new chapter for the local gaming industry. As the seventh most populous country in the world and a nation known for its passion for sports, it immediately attracted the attention of the global gaming sector. As a result, multiple operators and providers secured the necessary licenses, tapping into the demand for betting products. In September this year, however, Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394, placing an immediate nationwide ban on fixed-odds betting and online gaming. This sudden U-turn sent shockwaves across the gaming sector, leaving some operators scrambling to exit the market and others lying in wait to see whether the measure would stick. Since the presidential election was set to take place on October 25, gaming industry stakeholders counted on Bolsonaro to defeat Lula and overturn Provisional Measure 1,394. While prediction market platforms initially projected a Bolsonaro win, their tune quickly changed as the votes started pouring in. In the end, Lula received 51.75% of the vote, securing a historic win. Lula’s Win Adds to the Uncertainty Lula’s win means likely trouble for gaming operators as the re-elected president is likely to defend Provisional Measure 1,394 in Congress. While it has not been signed into law yet, operators are now warily waiting to see what the outcome will be. In addition to closing the online gaming market and depriving operators of a lucrative audience, the measure also doesn’t plan on refunding the license fees that operators paid to launch in Brazil. For reference, the cost of a license was BRL 30 million.Congress must vote on Provisional Measure 1,394 within 60 days, although this period can be extended by an additional 60 days. Several outcomes are possible, including keeping the ban, overturning it, and potentially only keeping the ban on iGaming but restoring online betting. In any case, even if Brazil is to restore its online gaming market, the whole ordeal would likely result in longer-term uncertainty. This doesn’t mean that companies will not return, though. Kambi officials recently spoke with iGaming Business, saying that if Brazil changes its mind, it will remain an attractive market and Kambi would probably continue serving it.