Prediction Markets Put Brakes on NFL Betting Growth, AGA Says

The American Gaming Association (AGA) expects National Football League (NFL) betting handle to remain virtually flat this season as prediction markets capture a growing share of Americans’ wagering dollars. Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford takes the field before a game against the Detroit Lions in 2025. (Image: Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images) According to the AGA, Americans are estimated to legally wager $29.5 billion on the NFL via regulated sportsbooks this season, which starts Wednesday night (Sept. 9) with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA. The AGA projects little growth from last season’s $29.4 billion handle, with president and CEO Bill Miller attributing the slowdown to prediction markets. NFL Handle Growth Stalls “We’re excited for the NFL season to kick off, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams,” said Miller. “Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth. “But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.” Prediction markets like Polymarket and Novig continue to expand their sports offerings nationwide, which now make up the majority of their revenue. Season Starts Sept. 9 Prediction markets and the regulated sportsbook industry are locked in a widening legal and regulatory battle over whether sports event contracts are federally regulated financial products or sports wagers subject to state gambling laws and licensing requirements. The legal dispute is likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court. “We know they have a very formidable offering,” said Dominic Hammond, senior vice president of sports at Caesars Digital. “They’re spending a lot of money. Fundamentally, we view their product as sports betting. If you can build a parlay, that’s sports betting, right? I don’t think you can call it anything else.” Caesars Stays the Course Prediction markets are not impacting Caesars’ strategy going into the new NFL season, he added. “It goes back to how we develop product, primarily listening to our customers, and internally where we want to go,” he said. “We can take parlays in a completely different direction with things like Flex [parlays that can still pay even if one or more selections lose]. We’ve got Caesars’ rewards, loyalty; we’ve got promotions, things that prediction markets don’t have. So they’re not impacting our strategy, but we view them as a competitor.” Legal Battles Spread Nationwide Legal, regulated gaming supports 1.8 million jobs and generates roughly $18 billion a year in sports betting tax revenue. The AGA said prediction market platforms are estimated to have “siphoned” away more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenues since 2025. “These ‘prediction market’ platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” said Miller. On the prediction market side, Novig, which focuses entirely on sports event contracts, launched Aug. 4 and reported a daily average contract volume of 23.3 million over seven days through Aug. 23, higher than Rothera (18.0 million) and Underdog (16.0 million), two of the biggest success stories among new prediction market operators. The post Prediction Markets Put Brakes on NFL Betting Growth, AGA Says appeared first on Casino.org.