Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue Could Reach $1.7B by 2028

Robinhood’s prediction market business is attracting optimistic forecasts from analysts. One such example comes from Bernstein, which is expecting revenue from event contracts to go over the company’s cryptocurrency trading income by 2028. Analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated his forecast that Nasdaq-listed Robinhood Markets could generate $1.7 billion in prediction market revenue in 2028, thus positioning the figure slightly ahead of the $1.6 billion projected from cryptocurrency trading. In a report released at the start of the week, the analyst also raised his overall revenue estimates for Robinhood by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028. Chhugani expects event contracts to generate $650 million in revenue this year. In other words, the business would more than double in size over the following two years if his forecast proves accurate. The projections come amid Robinhood’s preparations for its third-quarter report following US markets closing on October 27. The earnings release could provide further insight into the performance of its prediction market offering. In the second quarter, revenue from prediction markets exceeded Robinhood’s cryptocurrency business for the first time on a quarterly basis, according to the report. Coinbase Could Also Benefit Robinhood is not the only major financial services company attracting attention in the prediction market sector. Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), one of the largest US-based cryptocurrency exchanges, is also expected to benefit from growing demand for event contracts and derivatives. Chhugani forecasts that Coinbase will generate $2 billion in revenue from event contracts and derivatives products in 2028, up from an estimated $600 million in 2026. That would represent more than a threefold increase over the period. The category also includes derivatives such as perpetual futures, which allow traders to maintain positions without a fixed expiration date. Coinbase offers event contracts through a partnership with a major prediction market operator. Its established cryptocurrency business and financial resources could help it expand in a sector where digital asset-related contracts are among the fastest-growing non-sports categories. The US prediction market industry remains concentrated among a small number of major operators, although established brokerage and cryptocurrency platforms are increasingly competing for customers. The Path to Broader Financial Services For Robinhood and Coinbase, prediction markets may offer benefits beyond the revenue generated directly by trading activity. Both companies can use event contracts to attract new customers who may later explore other financial products. Robinhood executives have previously indicated that some users who begin trading yes-or-no event contracts go on to trade options and futures or open retirement accounts. This gives prediction markets a potential role in customer acquisition and engagement, helping financial services companies build longer-term relationships with traders. The sector’s future growth will depend on customer demand, trading activity, competition, and the regulatory environment.